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We asked 16 industry pros for their thoughts on the upcoming presidential election. Reactions ran the gamut. Some say whomever ultimately inhabits the White House for the next four years will have a big effect on the sector. Others pointed to alternate factors as being more critical in determining the outlook for commercial real estate.
I say there's not going to be much difference whether Romney or Obama wins. They both have the same tools with which they'd be trying to fix the economy. Commercial Real Estate is not just apartment buildings, it's real estate that houses businesses. For businesses to flourish there is a dire need for a free market, free of government intervention, regulations, taxation, or favoritism towards the big monopolizing corporations.
What we hear from both candidates is the exact opposite of what small and medium size businesses need to survive. We need a government friendly to the small businessman, which is not apparent.
The other issue is the central bank's intervention to re-inflate the real estate sector during a time when full deflation is necessary. None of the candidates will interfere with Bernanke's affairs. It is after all, the Federal Reserve policy implemented by Greenspan that brought our economy to its knees.
So, it is my opinion that commercial real estate will be limping for years to come regardless of whether the democrat or the republican candidate wins. The only one that might make a positive difference is Gary Johnson, as the Libertarian candidate, but the media won't even mention him so that the public would think they have only two choices.